Bitcoin Market ‘Hedged in Fear,’ Says Glassnode

Hi! In today’s edition:

• 🪙 Glassnode says Bitcoin’s vibe = pure fear

• 💰 Kalshi’s next raise could hit $12B

• 💸 Aave wants to buy back $50M of its own tokens

• 💵 Stablecoins are moving $46T a year

• 🎧 Neobanks 2.0: earn yield, keep control, skip the banks

Bitcoin Market ‘Hedged in Fear,’ Says Glassnode

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode described bitcoin’s current market conditions as being “hedged in fear,” with bitcoin trading below key cost basis levels, which signals demand exhaustion and fading momentum.

The firm noted that long-term holders have been selling into strength, with a significant increase in selling activity — over 22,000 BTC sold per day since July.

These dynamics mirror past patterns seen during corrections and periods of market stress, often preceding a mid-term bearish phase. But this time, Glassnode suggests a recovering market will depend on restoring spot demand and mitigating volatility-driven flows.

“If Bitcoin fails to recover above the ~113.1k, a deeper contraction could push a larger share of supply into loss, amplifying stress among recent buyers and potentially setting the stage for broader capitulation across the market,” said Glassnode.

You’ll want to watch today’s Unchained livestreams! 🍿

At 1pm ET: Laura sits down with James Craig, the director behind the new documentary “Code Is Law,” and then chats with unapologetic Bitcoin Maxi Lawrence Lepard. 👀

Available wherever you’re streaming: YouTube, X, PumpFun, or Twitch!

VCs Offer Kalshi Investment at $12 Billion Valuation: Report

Prediction market startup Kalshi is currently fielding investment offers from venture capital investors valuing the company between $10 billion and $12 billion, according to a Wednesday report from Bloomberg.

The report comes just weeks after Kalshi announced a $300 million funding round that valued the company at $5 billion.

Kalshi operates under a regulatory license and has been buoyed by a court win allowing it to list presidential-election contracts, contributing to trading volume growth and investor enthusiasm.

Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour claims the platform has hit $50 billion in annualized volume and is “the largest prediction market in the world.”

Meanwhile, rival prediction market platform Polymarket has reportedly begun early talks to raise funds at a valuation of up to $15 billion after its trading volumes hit record highs, surpassing $2 billion in a single week, fueled by growing investor interest and new deals with major sports and betting companies.

Data from The Block estimates that Polymarket actually commands a larger share of monthly volume, doing twice as much as Kalshi in September.

Polymarket recently received a $2 billion investment from NYSE-owner Intercontinental Exchange, valuing the company at $9 billion.

Aave DAO Considers $50 Million Annual Token Buyback Proposal

The Aave DAO is considering a proposal to institutionalize a $50 million annual buyback program for AAVE tokens, funded entirely through protocol-generated DeFi revenues.

The initiative, spearheaded by the Aave Chan Initiative (ACI), seeks to make token repurchases a recurring part of Aave’s economic model.

The proposal calls for weekly buybacks ranging from $250,000 to $1.75 million, with flexibility to adjust based on liquidity, market conditions, and revenue levels. Execution would be overseen by the Aave Finance Committee (AFC) and TokenLogic.

Aave currently generates around $169 million in annual revenue from lending fees and other protocol activities, according to data from DeFiLlama, making the $50 million buyback target sustainable, while maintaining operational and reserve obligations.

Stablecoins Processed $46 Trillion in Annual Transfers: a16z

Stablecoins have reached an annual transaction volume of $46 trillion in 2025, nearly triple the volume processed by Visa, according to a report from a16z.

After filtering out bots and other artificially inflationary activity, that figure was a much lower $9 trillion, but still more than five times PayPal’s annual volume.

The total stablecoin supply now exceeds $300 billion, with Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC accounting for 87% of this supply. It also means that stablecoins represent over 1% of all U.S. dollars in circulation as tokenized assets on blockchains.

The surge in stablecoin activity represents a significant shift in global finance, with stablecoins powering a new phase of economic activity that is largely decoupled from speculative crypto trading.

How Crypto Neobanks Make It Easier to Earn Passive Income

Crypto neobanks are merging cards, credit, and yield, all without giving up custody. Ready’s Itamar Lesuisse and EtherFi’s Mike Silagadze explain how this model could challenge traditional banks.

Neobanks changed how fintech thinks about money. Now, crypto builders want to do the same, without custody.

In this episode, Itamar Lesuisse, CEO of Ready, and Mike Silagadze, CEO of EtherFi, argue the real shift isn't about "crypto cards," it's about who controls your assets. EtherFi’s and Ready’s self-custodial apps merge saving, spending, and investing. The result: faster settlement, lower fees, and more transparency, but also new challenges around compliance, credit, and security.

Itamar Lesuisse and Mike Silagadze explain how layer 2 networks made crypto cards economically viable after years of failed attempts and how Africa’s FX markets could become the breakthrough use case for crypto banking.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pods, Fountain, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

• 🤝 Senate Democrats signaled to major crypto executives that they remain open to advancing a bipartisan bill to regulate U.S. digital asset markets, after a Capitol Hill meeting that drew more than ten lawmakers and included follow-up talks with Republicans.

• 🪙💥 Bunni, a decentralized crypto exchange, will permanently shut down following an $8.4 million hack that drained its treasury, saying it lacked the millions needed to rebuild securely, though users can still withdraw their assets.

• 🏢🚫 Major stock exchanges across the Asia-Pacific region, including Hong Kong’s, are pushing back against companies trying to stockpile cryptocurrencies in their treasuries, with Japan standing out as one of the few markets allowing such strategies with minimal resistance.

• 🏛️ A group of Senate Democrats pressed Trump envoy Steve Witkoff to explain why he still held stakes in Trump-linked crypto ventures despite previous divestment promises, raising conflict-of-interest concerns tied to deals involving the U.A.E.

• 🇹🇭 Thailand’s deputy finance minister Vorapak Tanyawong stepped down after reports tied him to a Chinese-Cambodian scam network that allegedly paid his wife $3 million in crypto, though he denied wrongdoing and said he was resigning to focus on his legal defense.

• 🚫 The UK’s financial regulator sued crypto exchange HTX, linked to Justin Sun, accusing it of illegally promoting digital asset services to British consumers in violation of local advertising rules.

• 📊 MegaETH said it would auction 5% of its token supply starting at a $1 million valuation through a three-day English auction, setting an unusually low entry price for an Ethereum scaling project.

• 🏒 The NHL struck multi-year licensing deals with prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, marking the league’s first partnership with crypto betting platforms and turning up the heat on traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings.

• 💰🪙 Modern Treasury bought stablecoin startup Beam for $40 million in stock, signaling a major push into instant dollar-based payments and positioning itself to compete more directly with Stripe and Coinbase.

• 💼 FalconX agreed to buy crypto asset manager 21Shares to move beyond its trading and liquidity services into launching crypto ETFs, aiming to speed up the creation of new investment products tied to digital assets.

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