Weekly Recap: Bitcoin Outlooks Diverge, Balancer Breach Rocks DeFi

MegaETH Just Had Its Public Sale. Can It Succeed in Building a Web2-Like Experience?

MegaETH’s oversubscribed token sale just wrapped. Its founders explain their plans to build the first real-time blockchain and why they skipped an airdrop.

Most new blockchains promise to scale. MegaETH promises to feel instant.

Fresh off its public sale, for which allocations were revealed on Thursday, the team behind MegaETH joins Unchained to explain why they’re calling it the world’s first real-time blockchain.

Co-founder Shuyao Kong and ecosystem lead Amir Almaimani walk through their decision to build as a layer 2 on Ethereum, not a competing layer 1, and why they think the real opportunity is creating onchain experiences that feel like Web2 apps.

The pair also dives deep into the tokenomics behind $MEGA, from sequencer rotation to proximity markets, and defends their choice to skip an airdrop in favor of “skin-in-the-game” token distribution.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pods, Fountain, PumpFun, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Now, let’s get into this week’s news! In today’s edition:

• 📉 Analysts diverge on bitcoin’s path as institutions reassess outlook

• 💥 Balancer hacked for $116M, sparking a DeFi trust crisis and audit debate

• 💰 Kazakhstan to establish $1 billion crypto reserve fund by 2026

• 🏦 Metaplanet borrows $100M to buy more bitcoin in an ultra-bold accumulation push

• 💸 Ripple raises $500M, fueling talk that investors are really buying discounted XRP

• ⚖️ SBF appeals conviction as judges grill his defense in a tense New York hearing

• 🇭🇰 Franklin Templeton debuts Hong Kong’s first tokenized money market fund

• 📊 Gemini seeks CFTC nod to launch a regulated crypto prediction market

Analysts Diverge on Bitcoin’s Path as Institutions Reassess Outlook

Bitcoin’s recent downturn has prompted sharply divided forecasts among leading financial institutions. Galaxy Digital cut its year-end target from $185,000 to $120,000 after the cryptocurrency slipped below $100,000 for the first time in six months. 

The firm cited reduced volatility and growing dominance of institutional investors as signs that bitcoin is entering a “maturity era.” Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, blamed October’s 400,000 BTC whale sell-off and a $20 billion liquidation cascade for dampened sentiment.

At the same time, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood revised her long-term bull case downward by $300,000, acknowledging that stablecoins are absorbing some of the real-world use cases her firm once envisioned for bitcoin. “Stablecoins are usurping part of the role that we thought Bitcoin would play,” Wood told CNBC, noting their rapid rise across emerging markets.

In contrast, JPMorgan analysts foresee renewed upside, projecting bitcoin could climb to around $170,000 within six to twelve months. The bank said October’s record liquidations have flushed excess leverage from the system, creating what it called a “cleaner setup” for recovery. Their model, which compares bitcoin’s volatility to gold, suggests a 67% upside potential if market stability persists.

Together, the contrasting views highlight a market at a crossroads—where institutional control, macro competition from assets like gold and AI stocks, and the rise of stablecoins are reshaping bitcoin’s trajectory heading into 2026.

Balancer Hack Drains $116 Million

Decentralized exchange Balancer suffered one of 2025’s largest DeFi exploits on Monday, with over $116 million drained from its v2 Stable and Composable Stable pools. 

Blockchain data showed stolen assets including 6,850 osETH, 6,590 WETH, and 4,260 wstETH transferred to a new wallet. The Balancer team confirmed the breach, paused affected pools, and offered a 20% white-hat bounty for the funds’ return. An emergency hard fork was also executed on the Berachain network to recover compromised assets.

A preliminary post-mortem later attributed the hack to a flaw in Balancer’s rounding function, which the attacker manipulated alongside flashloans to convert internal credits into real withdrawals. According to security firm Cyvers, it was one of the most sophisticated on-chain attacks to date.

The incident sparked debate across the crypto industry. Some analysts called the breach “a serious warning” for decentralized finance, while others argued it underscored the inherent risks of smart contract investing. Despite Balancer undergoing more than 10 security audits, critics questioned their effectiveness, warning that “audited by X means almost nothing.” The protocol’s total value locked dropped nearly 50% within 24 hours, reflecting shaken confidence even among veteran DeFi users.

Kazakhstan to Establish $1 Billion Crypto Reserve Fund by 2026

Kazakhstan plans to launch a national cryptocurrency reserve fund valued between $500 million and $1 billion by early 2026, according to a report from Bloomberg. The initiative will be financed through seized and repatriated assets held abroad, along with proceeds from state-backed crypto mining operations.

Rather than investing directly in bitcoin or other tokens, the fund will allocate capital to crypto-focused companies and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), aiming to build a diversified, regulated exposure to the digital asset sector.

Officials said the fund will be managed through the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), Kazakhstan’s main fintech and blockchain hub, and may eventually include foreign investment partners. 

The project follows earlier efforts by the Agency for Financial Monitoring to consolidate confiscated digital assets into a sovereign pool to “repurpose illicit holdings” and bolster national financial resilience. It marks the country’s most significant step yet toward institutionalizing its digital asset strategy.

Metaplanet Leverages $100M Bitcoin Loan to Expand Holdings

Tokyo-based Metaplanet has secured a $100 million loan backed by its existing bitcoin reserves to finance additional crypto purchases and share buybacks. The company, often called “Asia’s MicroStrategy,” used its 30,823 BTC—worth about $3.5 billion—as collateral under what it described as a “conservative” loan structure, though specific terms were not disclosed.

The move aligns with Metaplanet’s aggressive accumulation goal of holding 210,000 BTC by 2027, roughly 1% of bitcoin’s total supply. Funds may also support its ¥75 billion ($500 million) share repurchase plan, initiated after the company’s net asset value briefly fell below market parity last month.

While the strategy underscores Metaplanet’s deep conviction in Bitcoin, it could expose the firm to heightened risk if market volatility intensifies. Credit rating agencies have already flagged such concentration as a concern. “We remain fully committed to our Bitcoin strategy,” the company said in its filing.

Ripple Raises $500 Million Amid Questions Over Valuation

Ripple Labs has raised $500 million in a new funding round that values the company at $40 billion, drawing participation from major investors including Brevan Howard, Citadel Securities affiliates, Marshall Wace, Galaxy Digital, and Pantera Capital. 

The raise comes as Ripple expands aggressively, acquiring custody firm Palisade, prime brokerage Hidden Road, and stablecoin platform Rail, while its RLUSD stablecoin recently surpassed $1 billion in circulation.

However, industry observers told Unchained the deal may have less to do with Ripple’s operations and more with access to its vast XRP reserves. The company holds nearly 35 billion XRP—worth about $80 billion at current prices—leading some analysts to describe the investment as “buying discounted XRP through equity.” 

Despite Ripple’s large balance sheet, its blockchain network generates under $200,000 a month in fees, raising questions about XRP’s intrinsic value. Investors may view Ripple as a “digital asset treasury” play rather than a traditional fintech bet.

In related news, Ripple joined forces with Mastercard, Gemini, and WebBank to let Gemini credit card payments settle in its RLUSD stablecoin on Ripple’s blockchain, marking one of the first U.S. bank-backed credit card settlements using stablecoins as the global market surges toward a projected $4 trillion by 2030.

Sam Bankman-Fried Appeals Conviction, Faces Skeptical Court

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried returned to court this week seeking to overturn his 2023 conviction for defrauding customers, lenders, and investors of the now-defunct crypto exchange. The appeal, heard by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, argues that Judge Lewis Kaplan unfairly limited evidence supporting Bankman-Fried’s claim that he acted in good faith based on legal counsel.

The three-judge panel appeared unconvinced. “If you’re not challenging the sufficiency of the evidence, are you conceding it was sufficient to convict?” asked Circuit Judge Maria Araujo Kahn, pressing defense attorney Alexandra Shapiro on the argument. Prosecutors countered that the evidence of wrongdoing was “overwhelming,” citing testimony from three former FTX executives who said they conspired with Bankman-Fried to misappropriate $8 billion in customer funds.

Legal analysts say the defense faces “a steep uphill battle.” Even if the conviction stands, observers expect his family to intensify efforts for a presidential pardon—though experts view the chances as remote.

Franklin Templeton Launches Hong Kong’s First Tokenized Fund

Franklin Templeton has unveiled Hong Kong’s first fully tokenized money market fund, marking a major step in the city’s fintech and blockchain development strategy. The Franklin OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund, registered in Luxembourg, invests in short-term U.S. Treasuries while recording ownership via blockchain tokens.

The fund, launched for professional investors, was developed in partnership with HSBC and OSL as part of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s Project Ensemble, which explores tokenized deposits and potential CBDC integration. “This launch shows our commitment to expanding tokenized investment products in Asia,” said Tariq Ahmad, Franklin Templeton’s head of APAC.

The initiative supports Hong Kong’s Fintech 2030 plan and its goal to become a hub for institutional digital assets, distinguishing its regulatory approach from mainland China. Retail versions of the product are expected pending regulatory approval.

Gemini Files for CFTC Approval to Launch Prediction Market

Gemini has applied to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a regulated prediction market platform called Gemini Titan. The exchange’s filing seeks approval to run a designated contract market for event-based derivatives covering economic, political, and sports forecasts.

The move comes as prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket report record activity, surpassing $2 billion in weekly volume. Bloomberg reported that Gemini plans to offer the service directly rather than through partners, signaling a strategic shift toward institutional clients.

The exchange, owned by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, faces mounting financial pressure since its September IPO. Shares have fallen nearly 50%, and Gemini reported a $282 million loss in the first half of 2025 as revenue and retail activity declined.

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