Bits + Bips: Why Bitcoin Will Keep Going Down

Bitcoin’s price has entered a zone with almost no historical support — and Markus Thielen explains why that could matter more than traders think.

Bitcoin keeps drifting lower — and traders are asking the same question: where’s the floor?

Host Steve Ehrlich brings on Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, to walk through Bitcoin’s technical setup, ETF flows, institutional positioning, and why the recent selloff looks different from past dips.

Markus lays out the metrics he’s watching, the levels that matter, and why the path downward may still be the path of least resistance. He also shares his views on Ethereum, altcoins, digital asset treasuries, and why some investors are stepping away from risk entirely.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pods, Fountain, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Now, let’s get into this week’s news! In today’s edition:

• 📉 Bitcoin sinks below $82K during market wipeout

• 🪙 Monad’s token sale stalls at 87% of its goal

• 🐳 ETH treasury firm FG Nexus dumps 10,922 ETH

• 📈 Kraken files confidentially for a 2026 IPO push

• 🔒 BlackRock lays groundwork for a staked ETH ETF

• ⚖️ Samourai co-founder gets four years in prison

• 🏛️ New Hampshire launches first Bitcoin-backed bond

• 🕵️ Vitalik unveils Kohaku, Ethereum’s new privacy toolkit

• 🌐 White House weighs IRS access to offshore crypto data

• 🏦 OCC clears U.S. banks to hold crypto for gas fees

Bitcoin Falls Below $82,000 as Liquidations Surge Across the Market

Bitcoin slid 10% on Friday to a six-month low of $81,868, part of a broader risk-off move after U.S. equities reversed sharply. The drop triggered $2 billion in liquidations across major exchanges, with more than 406,000 traders wiped out in 24 hours.

Bitwise head of research André Dragosch said Bitcoin has entered its “max pain” zone between $84,000 and $73,000, the approximate cost bases for BlackRock’s IBIT ETF and MicroStrategy. He noted this area often reflects peak institutional losses before markets reset.

Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple has compressed toward the lower end of its long-term range, indicating weakening momentum. Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao warned the downturn could deepen as inexperienced buyers entered during the rally, suggesting the market may need to fall “another ~50%” before stabilizing.

Blockchain data also showed wide performance gaps among large holders, with one fund still up $6.15 billion on its 649,870 BTC, while major ETH and SOL positions held by Bitmine and Forward Industries have swung deeply into the red.

Monad Token Sale Picks Up but Still Falls Short of Target

Monad’s public token sale on Coinbase opened with rapid early interest, collecting about $50 million in its first 45 minutes. Momentum later slowed, and by Friday morning the sale had raised $162 million, reaching 87% of its $187 million goal. The offering marks the first major U.S. regulated public token sale since 2018 and made 7.5 billion MON tokens available at $0.025 each.

Participation limits on Coinbase and comparisons to last month’s MegaETH sale, which raised nearly $1.5 billion, fueled criticism from some traders.

Monad co-founder Keone Hon defended the approach, saying the team chose Coinbase to reach “the broadest distribution” through a transparent allocation model. According to the project’s tokenomics plan, any remaining tokens will be redirected to ecosystem development for grants, partnerships, and marketing.

Ether Treasury Firm FG Nexus Sells 10,922 ETH to Finance Share Buyback

FG Nexus, an Ethereum focused digital asset treasury firm, has sold 10,922 ETH—about $33 million—to help fund a major share repurchase, a move that highlights the strain facing companies whose business model depends on holding crypto rather than selling it. The firm also tapped $10 million in borrowed funds to buy back 3.4 million shares, equal to roughly 8% of its float, at an average price of $3.45, well below its reported net asset value of $3.94 per share.

DAT firms have seen steep stock declines, in some cases falling far below the value of their crypto holdings. ETHZilla, another Ethereum treasury, similarly sold $40 million in tokens earlier this month to support its share price.

FG Nexus now holds about 40,000 ETH plus $37 million in cash and USDC. CEO Kyle Cerminara said the company intends to keep repurchasing shares while they trade below NAV, though continued sales of core treasury assets raise questions about long term sustainability.

Kraken Moves Ahead With IPO Plans After $800 Million Raise

Kraken has confidentially filed paperwork to go public in the United States, the company confirmed alongside news of an $800 million fundraising round that valued the exchange at $20 billion. The latest raise included major Wall Street participants such as Citadel Securities and Jane Street, and marked a 33 percent valuation increase in less than two months.

Founded in 2011, Kraken ranks among the world’s largest crypto exchanges, offering trading in digital assets as well as tokenized equities for clients in the European Union. The firm didn’t comment on the timing of its listing but said it has not yet determined the number of shares or price range.

Kraken is targeting an IPO in early 2026 as more crypto firms push to list before the U.S. midterm elections. Recent public debuts by Bullish, Gemini, and Circle have contributed to a broader rebound in the American IPO market. Kraken said its new capital will support international expansion and further development of its payments and trading products.

BlackRock Advances Preparations for Staked Ethereum ETF

BlackRock has taken an early procedural step toward a potential staked Ethereum exchange traded fund by registering the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust as a Delaware statutory trust. State records show the entity was formed on November 19, a routine move often used by ETF issuers before any formal contact with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The listing does not include product details, and industry observers note that creating a trust does not mean an SEC filing is imminent.

The development comes as staking enabled Ethereum products slowly gain momentum in the U.S. market. REX Osprey’s ETH plus Staking ETF, launched in September, has gathered roughly two point four million dollars in assets, while Grayscale introduced staking features across its Ethereum line in October after new exchange listing standards took effect. Grayscale’s launch created the first regulated model for passing staking rewards through to investors.

BlackRock has previously signaled interest in staking. In July, the firm proposed rule changes that would allow its iShares Ethereum Trust to “receive all or a portion of the staking rewards” generated by a provider.

In related news, BlackRock’s $2.5 billion BUIDL fund, which tokenizes U.S. Treasury–backed money‑market assets, was approved as collateral on Binance and expanded to BNB Chain, marking its eighth supported blockchain as institutions push for yield-bearing, price‑stable onchain assets.

Samourai Wallet Co-Founder William Hill Sentenced to Four Years

A federal judge in New York has sentenced Samourai Wallet co-founder William Lonergan Hill to four years in prison for conspiring to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business. Hill, age 67, will also serve three years of supervised release and pay a $250,000 fine, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York. His sentence follows that of co-founder Keonne Rodriguez, who received a five year term earlier this month.

Prosecutors said Hill and Rodriguez processed more than 80,000 bitcoin worth over $2 billion through Samourai’s privacy tools between 2017 and 2024, earning about $6 million in fees. Authorities described promotional activity on darknet forums and social platforms as evidence the pair encouraged users to launder criminal proceeds. “Laundering known criminal proceeds… will face serious consequences,” U.S. Attorney Nicolas Roos said.

Hill’s attorney argued his recent autism diagnosis impaired his judgment, but Judge Denise Cote rejected claims that minimized the offense. She acknowledged his age and medical condition in reducing the sentence from the 60 months prosecutors requested. Hill must report to begin serving his term on January 2.

New Hampshire Launches First Bitcoin Backed Municipal Bond

New Hampshire’s Business Finance Authority has approved a $100 million conduit bond that will let private firms and nonprofits borrow against their bitcoin holdings. The program is the first of its kind in the U.S. and follows the state’s creation of a strategic crypto reserve earlier this year. Borrowers must post bitcoin valued at 160% of the loan amount, with mandatory liquidation if that buffer falls below 130% to protect bondholders.

BFA Executive Director James Key Wallace said fees from the structure will support the state’s new Bitcoin Economic Development Fund. “We’re proud to help develop new tools that allow companies in the digital asset ecosystem to access capital safely and effectively,” he said.

Governor Kelly Ayotte praised the bond as a way to expand investment opportunities without using taxpayer money.

Vitalik Buterin Debuts Kohaku, a New Privacy Framework for Ethereum

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has introduced Kohaku, an open source toolkit designed to bring stronger privacy protections to the Ethereum ecosystem. Speaking at Devcon in Buenos Aires, Buterin said Ethereum had reached its “very last mile stage” on privacy, noting the network is “still behind” where it should be in protecting user information.

Kohaku provides a modular set of tools for developers to build privacy enabled wallets and applications without relying on centralized intermediaries. The framework incorporates integrations with systems like Railgun and Privacy Pools, which use zero knowledge proofs and “association lists” to obscure user activity while preventing bad actors from mixing illicit funds. During a live demo, a Kohaku wallet allowed a user to shield publicly visible assets through a Railgun integration.

White House Reviews Plan to Let IRS Access Offshore Crypto Data

The White House is evaluating a Treasury proposal that would give the IRS access to information on digital assets held by U.S. taxpayers in foreign accounts. The measure would implement the Crypto Asset Reporting Framework, an OECD standard that enables automatic data sharing among participating countries to curb cross border tax evasion.

CARF is slated for global rollout in 2027, and U.S. adoption would align the country with early adopters including Japan, Germany, Canada, and the U.K. A summer policy report from the administration said that implementing CARF “would discourage U.S. taxpayers from moving their digital assets to offshore digital asset exchanges” and help maintain competitiveness for domestic platforms.

OCC Gives U.S. Banks Approval to Hold Crypto for Gas Fees

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has confirmed that national banks may hold native blockchain tokens on their balance sheets to pay gas fees. In Interpretive Letter No. 1186, the agency said banks can maintain the digital assets needed for “reasonably foreseeable” operational requirements, including custody services and transactions conducted under the new GENIUS Act framework.

Because blockchain networks require their own tokens for processing activity, the OCC said holding small amounts of assets like BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL is a permissible incidental banking function. Commentator Paul Barron called the change “HUGE for the industry,” noting that banks will no longer need third party services for routine fees.

The guidance marks a shift in tone under Comptroller Jonathan Gould, appointed earlier this year, as regulators continue drafting broader stablecoin rules for national banks.